John D. Mueller is the Lehrman Institute Fellow in Economics and Director of the Economics and Ethics Program at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.Mr. Mueller is also president of LBMC LLC, a firm in Washington, D.C., specializing in economic and financial-market forecasting and economic policy analysis. He has more than 30 years' experience in those fields.
He is author of Redeeming Economics: Rediscovering the Missing Element (ISI Books, 2010).
Mr. Mueller became a nationally known forecaster by devising a money measure he called the World Dollar Base to predict the 1990-91 inflation and 1991 recession, which surprised most forecasters. He used it to predict in 2005 that gasoline prices would top $3 a gallon and crude oil $100 a barrel by the end of 2007. And he warned clients to exit the stock market before the crashes of 2001-2 and 2008-9.
Besides investment managers, Mr. Mueller has advised many American and foreign economic policymakers on monetary policy and exchange rates, policies for reducing unemployment, and income-tax, welfare and Social Security reform. These have included French premier-elect Edouard Balladur (1992-93); Gov. Bob Casey's presidential exploratory committee (1995); the National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform (1995-96); the Family Research Council (1996-99); the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico (1997-98); the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (1997-99); Hon. Gary Bauer's presidential campaign (1999-2000); and the Israel Center for Social and Economic Progress (2003).
From 1979 through 1988, Mr. Mueller was economist and speechwriter to then-Congressman Jack Kemp, mostly as Economic Counsel to the House Republican Conference (caucus) of which Kemp was chairman. In that capacity he drafted bills originating some key features of President Ronald Reagan's tax cuts of 1981 and Tax Reform Act of 1986 and of Kemp's 1988 presidential campaign.
Mr. Mueller has been a Fellow of The Lehrman Institute since 2000; Princeton University's James Madison Society since 2001; The Lincoln Institute since 2003; the Lehrman American Studies Center since 2006 (serving on its steering committee and teaching faculty of its Summer Institute); the Jack Kemp Foundation since 2009; and Senior Fellow of the Intercollegiate Studies Institute since 2010. He was a founding board member of the G.K. Chesterton Institute, which is now at Seton Hall University.
Mr. Mueller and his wife live in Washington, D.C.
Education
Mr. Mueller graduated in 1974 from Haverford College. In 1974-75 he was a Thomas J. Watson Traveling Fellow. In 2001-2002 he was among the first Fellows of Princeton University's James Madison Program.
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