To watch a video of the complete panel on “Family and Demography,” please click here.
I’m honored to address the Fifth World Congress of Families in Amsterdam. In our panel on “Family and Demography,” I will try to answer two important questions: First, how do nations choose “demographic winter”? Second, is the United States now doing so? I will update the model of fertility I presented at the last World Congress of Families, to explain why the recipe for “demographic winter” is the same combination of legal abortion and high social benefits now advocated by President Barack Obama and a majority in Congress. If the share of social benefits in national income doubles as now projected, U.S. “demographic exceptionalism” will end, as the birth rate drops from 2.1 to less than 1.7. Yet fertility would rise and above the replacement rate, not only in the United States but also most other countries, by ending legal abortion.