The day has arrived for Iran to declare its new president. After three contentious weeks of campaigning between the remaining four candidates (see below for background), two of whom are reformists in opposition to the hard-to-outmaneuver incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran stands at a veritable crossroads as the world holds its breath. Whoever prevails will arguably dictate the course of Iran's domestic and foreign policy over the next four years, although Supreme Leader Ali Khameini will continue to hold force as the ultimate authority.

Paralleling this flurry of election activity has been a worrisome confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of a rapidly expanding nuclear plant in Natanz, just as there is heightened concern about North Korea's recent nuclear flirtations and its well-documented partnership with Iran in the area of nuclear-capable missile technology. Two weeks ago Israel leaked some intelligence suggesting that Venezuela isshipping uranium tothe Islamic Republic. As U.S. envoy Dennis Ross prepares to engage Iran diplomatically and President Obama last week reiterated Washington's offer to negotiate with the regime without preconditions, it remains to be seen whether Iran's hardliners will adjust their course. No matter how soft Obama's words, recent rhetoric on the part of Ayatollah Khamanei doesn't give one much hope, and I doubt that invitations to eat hot dogs at American embassies on July 4^th is going to appease the powers that be.

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Background on the Candidates

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been the President of Iran since winning the election in 2005. He has become a populist hero for many Iranians and has succeeded in maintaining the support of the lower class through salary and pension raises, cash gifts, and free handouts. However, his vocal rebukes of Israel and the United States, as well as his stanch commitment to Iran's nuclear power program, have caused tension for Iranians with the rest of the world.

Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a politician and architect, is considered by most to be Ahmadinejad's strongest contender. He served successfully as Iranian Prime Minister throughout its war with Iraq in the 1980s, and has advocated for greater social freedoms, including increased women's rights.

Mehdi Karroubi is an Iranian cleric with similar reformist hopes. He served as Speaker of Parliament from 2000 to 2004. Considered a moderate, he has spoken in favor of rights for religious and ethnic minorities and of increased relations with the United States.

Mohsen Rezaei is a conservative who served as Commander of the Revolutionary Guard from 1981-1997. He is currently wanted by INTERPOL for his connection with the 1994 AMIA bombing. Unlike the other contenders, Rezaei has stated that he wants to continue much of Ahmadinejad's current policies. As a conservative candidate, he is predicted to steal some votes from Ahmadinejad, but is unlikely to win.