Both sides in the culture war over abortion have been readying themselves for the decision of the Supreme Court this fall on partial-birth abortion. Both sides expect a decision portentous and astounding -- for people on both sides seriously expect the Court will use its decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

That is not likely to be the case. An outcome so dramatic is not strictly necessary, and it may not even be prudent. In any event, it seems quite improbable from a Court containing judges as cautious and circumspect as John Roberts and Samuel Alito. The question on which everything else hangs is whether the Court will manage to flip the decision it handed down six years ago in Stenberg v. Carhart, in which, with Sandra Day O'Connor providing the deciding vote, the Court overturned the law on partial-birth abortion in Nebraska (and, by inference, in thirty other states).

With O'Connor now replaced, it seems a good bet the Court would overturn that judgment. Whether it will reach the same result with a ban on partial-birth abortion emanating from the federal government is a notably different question. Still, if Roberts and Alito help simply to overturn that prior decision on partial-birth abortion, my own judgment is that the regime of Roe will have come to its end, even if Roe itself is not explicitly overruled. What the Court would be saying in effect is, "We are now in business to consider seriously, and to sustain, many plausible measures that impose real restrictions on abortion."

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